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Considering the relatively high Greens vote in Footscray at the 2022 state election (22.42% primary, 32.48% 3CP) and in Maribyrnong for the 2024 Vic Councils election (22.10%), I could see this being a Greens/Labor 2CP. Which Labor would then win.
Of course, Fraser includes more than just those areas. But the Greens did also do quite well in the single Brimbank council ward they ran in.
@ Matthew possibly longer term. I think this election cycle Greens will focus on Wills which is more winnable in the current circumstances and will look at Fraser in a future election cycle. I cant imagining this ever being a GRN V LIB seat.
I think a teal would do well in some parts of Fraser, e.g. Seddon & Yarraville.
Greens seem to be putting effort into this seat – a very good candidate, an actual ground campaign which has already gotten them good local government results (4 Green councillors in single member wards overlapping this seat). Mulino does not seem like the kind of MP who ever expected to fight hard for his seat.
It’s still ultimately going to be very tough for Greens to win without Liberal preferences. Labor falling into 3rd from 45% 3CP would be a disastrous election for them
I can see why the Greens are giving Labor a run for their money. The Greens are testing the waters it seems – seeing how they will fare if they put effort in. In the state seat of Footscray, the 2PP split is 54/46 (ALP vs GRN) after Labor copped a huge swing and the Greens and Vic Socialists polled well.
The Brimbank part is still ALP vs LIB which means Labor will hold for now. There’s a chance of Fraser becoming ALP vs GRN especially if Labor’s vote declines (as per polling) and the Greens and Vic Socialists pick up votes.
The close 2CP in Footscray was due to the Liberals preferencing the Greens.
I always find it surprising how well the Greens do in Footscray. Yes, it is close to the city, but every time I’ve been there it feels more like Dandenong than Fitzroy.
The centre of Footscray itself still looks pretty run down and old, but get a few blocks away and it’s full of hipsters and young professionals in restored old houses and new apartments.
Another thing to note is that as Vic Socialists won’t be running candidates in either Wills or Calwell this will be their foremost single-member electorate and they may run a decent campaign further damaging Labor.